Hakim Baba Ahmed, former Special Assistant on Political Affairs in the Office of the Vice President, has warned that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) risks internal collapse if former Vice President Atiku Abubakar wins the party’s presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 general elections, arguing that a heated nomination contest could lead to mass defections.
Baba Ahmed said in an interview with Politics Today on Tuesday that Atiku is in a strong position to emerge as the ADC standard-bearer if the party goes ahead with the national conference, but added that such an outcome could come at a heavy cost to the party’s unity. He said many of the party’s leading figures were driven by the same ambition to win the presidential ticket, and a consensus outcome was unlikely.
“If the ADC participates in the party conference, and it certainly will, he will get the ticket because that is what former Vice President Atiku wants,” Baba Ahmed said. “And a lot of people are going to leave, because a lot of people are at that party just for the same thing: They want tickets.”
He argued that the ADC has become a crowded platform for prominent politicians with presidential ambitions, creating a volatile situation that could collapse if a single candidate emerges. Baba Ahmed said the party’s current appeal lies primarily in its openness and the recognition that no one candidate will automatically have an advantage, something he believes a convention with Atiku in the majority would tip the balance.
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Baba Ahmed also pointed to expectations surrounding former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi as another potential fault line within the party. He said Obi’s supporters increasingly see him as a natural standard-bearer rather than a candidate in a competitive primary, and that tensions could rise if the ADC insists on holding a convention.
“One of the reasons why Peter Obi is saying, ‘Look, I’m not here for number two. I’m not here for a tournament. I’m here to fly the flag,’ is because there are people who were whispering politely to him at first,” Baba Ahmed said. “But now they’re saying, ‘Join the queue. You’re not the only one with ambition here.’
Baba Ahmed said Obi is used to political arrangements that promote him as a consensus candidate rather than being forced to fight rivals in national competitions. He suggested this difference in political styles and expectations could deepen internal rifts if Mr. Obi felt sidelined or outmaneuvered in a crowded field.
“Peter Obi is flouting convention,” he said, adding that the ADC’s insistence on a formal nomination process could alienate key figures and their supporters.
Baba Ahmed warned that the biggest risk to the party is the aftermath of the convention, rather than the convention itself. He predicted that if Atiku were to win the election as expected, the ADC could suffer significant damage from disaffected defections from aspirants and factions unwilling to accept the results.
“The ADC will be bleeding after the convention as former Vice President Atiku is almost certain to win,” he said. “And when he does, some people will leave. There will be serious damage.”
His comments come as opposition forces consider a platform and alliance to take on the ruling party, with realignment underway ahead of elections in 2027. For the ADC, Baba Ahmed’s warning highlights the challenge of managing its big ambitions without splintering the party.
