Nigeria’s Oil Production Set to Rise Amid Enhanced Security Measures
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) has revealed a substantial uptick in Nigeria’s crude oil production, bouncing back from the record lows experienced in 2022. This increase is attributed to improved pipeline security and efforts aimed at curbing rampant oil theft.
Bashir Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, shared this update at the Parliamentary Roundtable on Pipeline Security held at the National Assembly in Abuja. He announced that domestic crude oil production is projected to rise from approximately 960,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 1.71 million barrels per day, with a peak forecast of 1.84 million barrels per day by 2025.
Ojulari explained that this growth is largely due to the implementation of the Integrated Energy Security Framework, a strategy designed to safeguard the Niger Delta’s oil infrastructure. This framework encompasses policy coordination, intelligence gathering, security operations, regulatory oversight, collaboration with the industry, and community-based monitoring.
This multifaceted approach has proven effective in addressing ongoing issues like oil theft and pipeline vandalism, which have previously hampered production levels. Ojulari emphasized that the improvements seen are not random but rather the outcome of organized and strategic initiatives, noting that enhanced security has also elevated investor confidence within Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
In a statement released on its website, NNPC detailed that key government officials and industry stakeholders convened at the roundtable to evaluate pipeline safety and its implications for oil production. Over the last decade, Nigeria’s oil output has suffered tremendously due to unprecedented oil theft, pipeline damage, aging infrastructure, and high operational costs.
Consequently, production frequently dipped below 1.5 million barrels per day. Analysts point to factors such as instability, regulatory ambiguity, and investment challenges in the Niger Delta as significant contributors to these setbacks, prompting companies to occasionally declare force majeure.
The issue of oil theft has repeatedly been highlighted by NNPC as one of the largest barriers preventing the country from achieving its goal of producing 2 million barrels per day. Data from NNPCL indicated a staggering loss of 470,000 barrels per day in 2022 due to theft, equating to roughly $700 million per month.
International oil companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria, including major players like Shell, are grappling with significant hurdles stemming from community conflicts over the environmental repercussions of oil spills. At one point, oil production in the Niger Delta was suspended due to a surge in pipeline vandalism.
Oil operators have also expressed concerns that the escalating costs of securing their facilities are contributing to overall production expenses across the sector. In recent announcements, the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that Nigeria’s total oil and condensate reserves stood at 37.01 billion barrels as of January 1, 2026, while natural gas reserves increased to 215.19 trillion cubic feet.
Despite a slight year-on-year decline of 0.74% in oil and condensate reserves—attributed to lower production levels and updates based on field performance—gas reserves showed an increase of 2.21%, primarily due to advancements in discoveries and reservoir studies.
Call for Enhanced Collaboration Among Stakeholders
Senate President Godswill Akpabio, represented by Jimoh Ibrahim, emphasized the need for heightened cooperation among stakeholders to sustain production growth and effectively tackle ongoing challenges. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, echoed this sentiment, urging participants to assess progress and promote equity and inclusivity in policy execution.
This roundtable event, organized by the Joint House and Senate Committee on Petroleum Resources, brought together security officials, including the National Security Adviser, Minister of Defence, and heads of various security agencies. Presentations were also made by the Chief of Defence Staff, Inspector-General of Police, Director-General of the National Security Agency, Commander-in-Chief of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defense Force, and private security personnel.
The NNPC remains committed to enhancing partnerships and security initiatives to foster production growth and ensure long-term stability in the oil sector.
