Nigerians, Pakistanis and Sri Lankans applying to work or study in the UK face Home Office restrictions on suspicion they are most likely to overstay or apply for asylum, Whitehall officials have claimed.
The Government is working with the National Crime Agency to develop a model for profiling potential asylum seekers from these countries.
The success of such plans will depend on the strength of the models and the intelligence they work with, one transition expert said.
At one point last year, nearly 10,000 asylum seekers who arrived in the UK legally on work or study visas were living in taxpayer-funded accommodation such as hotels.
Data released by the Home Office in March showed that Pakistani, Nigerian and Sri Lankan nationalities were the most common nationalities among asylum seekers who initially entered the country on visas but then ended up staying in government accommodation.
The Guardian newspaper revealed on Saturday that the government plans to reduce the number of UK student visa holders applying for asylum.
Officials will be directed to use bank statements submitted by visa holders as part of their review when deciding whether to grant asylum accommodation to visa holders.
The Times says the Home Office is building intelligence to help caseworkers spot patterns in the profiles of people most likely to exploit work or study visas as loopholes in asylum claims. They cite visa holders from Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka as those most likely to proceed with asylum applications.
The authorities are working with the NCA to develop a model for refusing visa applications from people who fit the profile of potential asylum seekers.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Oxford University Migration Observatory, said it was difficult to assess whether the government and the NCA could build such a model.
“The key question, which is difficult to assess from the outside, is do they have the information to accurately determine who is likely to apply for asylum upon arrival, because obviously that is very difficult.
“Whether it’s effective depends on whether the pattern is clear enough to do it accurately, or whether it gives more arbitrary results. Unless you’re on the inside, it’s really hard to know.”
“You can imagine scenarios that could have quite a large impact, and you can also imagine scenarios that actually affect only a relatively small number of people,” she said.
Asked whether the government’s plans could lead to legal challenges on grounds of discrimination, Mr Sumption said: “I’m not a lawyer, but the government has a lot of discretion over work and study, deciding whether or not to grant visas to people coming from abroad.
“Although there may potentially be some legal recourse, broadly speaking, governments are allowed to discriminate on a variety of grounds when issuing work and study visas.”
