NCDC Predicts Sharp Increase in Lassa Fever Deaths by 2026
The Nigeria Center for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) has indicated a concerning forecast: the number of deaths due to Lassa fever is expected to escalate significantly in 2026. This prediction comes despite a recent decrease in new confirmed cases, as reported in the agency’s latest epidemiological update.
Current Death Toll and Case Fatality Rate
In its 13th week epidemiological report released on Thursday in Abuja, the NCDC announced that 167 deaths have been recorded so far this year. The Nigeria Institute of Public Health observed a notable case fatality rate (CFR) of 25.2%, markedly higher than the 18.5% reported during the same timeframe in 2025.
Weekly Case Trends Show Variability
The report noted that there were 26 new confirmed cases during the 13th week, a decline from the 51 cases documented in the preceding week. These cases were distributed across seven states: Edo, Bauchi, Ondo, Taraba, Ebonyi, Benue, and Kaduna.
High Disease Burden Affects Multiple Regions
Despite the weekly decline, officials stressed that the overall burden of Lassa fever remains high. To date, 663 confirmed cases have emerged from 3,831 suspected instances across 22 states and 93 local governments in 2026. The report underscores an increased number of suspected and confirmed cases compared to the same period last year.
Identifying the Most Affected Areas
The NCDC identified Bauchi, Ondo, Taraba, Edo, and Benue as the most severely impacted states, accounting for 85% of all confirmed cases. Alarmingly, young adults aged 21 to 30 are currently the most vulnerable demographic, with a median age of 30 among those affected.
Challenges in Combatting Lassa Fever
Contributing to the high case fatality rate are several ongoing challenges: slow case detection, inadequate health-seeking behavior, and prohibitive treatment costs. Other factors include poor environmental hygiene and a lack of public awareness in heavily impacted areas.
Strengthened Response Strategies
In light of these challenges, the NCDC has activated a multi-partner incident management system to fortify national response efforts. Collaborating with organizations like WHO, UNICEF, and MSF, the agency aims to enhance surveillance, contact tracing, and public education initiatives. Targeted interventions, including health worker protection plans and infection prevention strategies, are being rolled out in high-burden states.
Public health experts stress that despite recent improvements in response measures, the increasing case fatality rate underscores the pressing need to address systemic deficiencies in early diagnosis and treatment accessibility. They emphasize that early detection, timely treatment, and rigorous infection control are essential for lowering mortality rates and curtailing future outbreaks.
Lassa fever, an acute viral hemorrhagic disease caused by the Lassa virus, is primarily transmitted through contact with rodent-contaminated food and household items. The disease sees annual outbreaks in Nigeria, particularly during the dry season when human contact with infected rodents rises significantly.
