Although Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased slightly to 15.06% year-on-year, the sharp rise to 2.01% month-on-month (mom) indicates Ramadan-related price pressures, with early bulk buying by households and reduced agricultural activities pushing up prices of key necessities.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the consumer price index decreased from 15.10% in January 2026 to 15.06% in February 2026.
The month-on-month headline inflation rate rose to 2.01% from -2.88% in the previous month.
Inflation in February reflected acceleration in both the food basket and the core basket, rising from -6.02% and -1.69% to 4.69% and 0.89%, respectively.
The upward trend in month-on-month food inflation from January’s percentage is a result of price pressure on staple foods during Ramadan.
“However, food inflation may rise slightly month-on-month as Ramadan-related stockpiling and reduced agricultural activity push up prices of key necessities, thereby putting upward pressure on monthly headline inflation,” Meristem analysts said.
Meristems’ commodity price tracker showed staple food prices rising, halting months of declines in staples such as corn and sorghum. Paddy rice and soybeans recorded significant price increases.
This decline is a far cry from many analysts’ expectations for inflation to fall to levels of 13-14%.
“We expect headline inflation to be 13.48% year-on-year in January,” Meristem analysts wrote in their latest inflation report.
The biggest month-on-month increase was in food inflation at 10.70%, while core inflation increased by 2.5%.
According to Meristem analysts, inflation pressures remained moderate as of February 2026, supported by relatively subdued core price pressures.
“Core inflation is expected to continue its downward trend year-on-year, supported by low fuel prices and a strong naira. However, the index is likely to stabilize month-on-month rather than contract further,” research analysts at Meristem noted in a report.
They said PMS prices eased slightly in February after Dangote Refinery reduced the depot price by 25 naira per liter from N799 to N774 in January. This should help contain transport and energy costs within the core index. Moreover, the naira appreciated by 4.32 percent month-on-month in February, averaging 1,355.34 naira per dollar at the official counter, up from 1,416.52 naira per dollar in January.
