As the 2026 NCAA Tournament kicks off this Thursday, the excitement is palpable. However, this year’s event is marked by a significant shift, leaving some fans grappling with uncertainty about the future of the sport.
Despite my concerns, I hold onto the hope that the coming weeks will reaffirm the magic that has captivated basketball enthusiasts for decades.
The Impact of Upsets on the Tournament’s Legacy
Historically, upsets have shaped the NCAA Tournament into the extraordinary spectacle it is today, creating a sense of wonder that resonates with fans. Just a few years ago, underdog teams were making headlines, with No. 15 seeds advancing to the Elite Eight in 2021 (Oral Roberts) and 2022 (St. Peter’s), and Princeton reaching the Sweet 16 in 2023. The tournament also witnessed the second-ever 16-seed victory over a 1-seed (Fairleigh Dickinson besting Purdue), alongside a remarkable run by No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.
Yet, that trend appears to have stagnated. In the last two tournaments, only one double-digit seed progressed past the initial weekend, and both were members of power conferences. Last year’s Elite Eight and Final Four matchups followed a predictable script, raising questions about whether recent changes in NIL regulations and the transfer portal have favored powerhouse programs at the expense of lower-seeded teams. As we approach this year’s tournament, observers are eager to see if the allure of March Madness still holds true.
NCAA Tournament Insights
Anticipating Upsets
I remain optimistic that upsets can still occur, so I’ve identified three potential first-round surprises. It’s important to note that this isn’t simply about the performance of double-digit seeds from power conferences.
No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
While Miami (Ohio) gained much of the attention in the MAC, the Zips might have been the stronger team throughout the season. Following a disappointing loss to Miami in January, they have rebounded impressively, winning 19 of their last 20 games, with their only loss to a strong Trojans team. Conversely, Texas Tech has struggled recently, facing challenges after losing star player JT Toppin, ultimately dropping three consecutive games as they entered the tournament.
No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Earlier in the season, the Trojans secured a significant victory over San Diego State, which was one of the first four teams eliminated from the tournament. Days later, they faced USC in a gripping triple-overtime match, narrowly missing out on a win. Troy has demonstrated they can compete against top-tier teams, particularly against Nebraska, who started the season strong at 20-0 but has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game, making them susceptible to another upset.
No. 13 California Baptist vs. No. 5 Kansas
The Lancers are poised for a potential upset, showcasing a distinctive defense and featuring one of the nation’s leading scorers in Dominic Daniels. My skepticism regarding Kansas State’s consistency plays into this prediction; despite their talent and previous victories over powerful teams like Arizona and Houston, they have also encountered puzzling defeats, casting doubt on their readiness for tournament pressure. With question marks surrounding star player Darrin Peterson’s performance, this matchup offers a ripe opportunity for an upset.
Spotlighting the Next Cinderella Story
Last year, the “Cinderella” story was the No. 10 seed University of Arkansas, while the prior year saw No. 11 seed North Carolina State make waves. This season may usher in a new wave of unexpected success, particularly for Texas A&M, the No. 10 seed in the South.
The Aggies are known for their up-tempo style of play, referred to as “Buckyball,” under first-year coach Bucky McMillan, who previously orchestrated an upset over Kansas in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. This could be an exciting year for them.
Key Matchups to Watch
A highly anticipated matchup features No. 1 Arizona against No. 4 Arkansas in the Sweet 16. As the overall top seed, Arizona comes into the tournament with a remarkable 32-2 record, capitalizing on a nine-game winning streak that includes four victories over top-10 teams. With a well-balanced offense where every starter averages double digits in points, they’re a formidable opponent. However, Arkansas, led by star guard Darius Acuff Jr., who averaged 22 points per game, poses a significant challenge. Acuff’s performance in the SEC Tournament, where he helped secure Arkansas’s first conference championship in 26 years, could propel them deep into the tournament.
Predictions for the National Champion
Reflecting on recent tournaments, I’ve consistently chosen favorites, only to see them fall short. For instance, Illinois was eliminated in the round of 32 in 2021, Villanova lost in the Final Four in 2022, and Duke was out in the same round last year. Each year seems to reinforce the notion that selecting a favored team brings about an ironic jinx. With these factors in mind, I’m hesitant to select a true contender. Instead, I’ll pivot to Arizona, whose depth and balance make them a team to watch, despite the apprehensions this may raise among their supporters.
