Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter delivering the latest insights and analysis from the NBC News political team regarding the White House, Capitol Hill, and election campaigns.
In this edition, analyst Steve Kornacki examines the key elections scheduled for April and provides an update on ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving the Department of Homeland Security shutdown.
— Adam Wollner
Upcoming Significant Elections in April
Insights by Steve Kornacki
Though there has been a break in the midterm primary cycle, April will feature four notable elections across the United States, each deserving of close attention for different reasons.
On April 7, Georgia will hold its 14th District Special Runoff Election. Democrat Sean Harris emerged as the frontrunner in the March 10 primary, but defeating Republican Clay Fuller in the runoff would be an unexpected turn of events. This district, which spans Cobb County outside of Atlanta to the northwestern part of the state, supported Donald Trump by a significant 37-point margin in the 2024 election. Historically, no Democrat has won a House district by more than 10 points in areas that backed Trump. The initial election functioned as a jungle primary, where candidates from all parties competed but failed to achieve a 50% majority, leading to the runoff between the top two candidates.
The Republican vote was divided among several contenders, making the upcoming runoff particularly intriguing. During Trump’s second term, Democrats have consistently performed better in special elections compared to their 2024 presidential election results, gaining at least 13 net points. If Democrats can maintain Fuller’s approval rating, they will likely view a close outcome as a moral victory.
Next, we turn to the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Although officially nonpartisan, judicial elections in Wisconsin are highly politicized. Recently, Democrats have gained an edge, driven by a significantly mobilized voter base. Last year, the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court was at stake, triggering a record influx of campaign funding. This resulted in a decisive win for Democratic candidates, primarily due to high turnout among affluent, college-educated voters.
However, the stakes are lower this election cycle, with diminished national interest potentially leading to reduced voter turnout—an environment where Democrats traditionally excel. If the results are narrow, Republicans may still attempt to claim a moral victory should they perform better than expected.
On April 16, the special election for New Jersey’s 11th District will take center stage. In a contrasting political climate, Republicans are hoping for enthusiasm as they seek to replace current Governor John Rodger with Mikie Sherrill. This suburban district, once a Republican stronghold, has shifted toward Democrats due to demographic changes and a backlash against Trump. Democrats have nominated Analilia Mejia, who boasts support from progressive figures like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Meanwhile, Republicans are backing Joe Hathaway, a local mayor known for his criticisms of Trump.
Finally, the Virginia Redistricting Referendum on April 21 will be a major focus. Democrats aim to leverage gerrymandering to establish a 10-1 advantage in the state’s House of Representatives, an increase from their current 6-5 margin. This ambitious maneuver draws inspiration from the success of California Democrats, who secured a newly drawn congressional map after a remarkable 29-point victory last November. The Virginia electorate is not as solidly blue as California’s, but following the recent election of Democrat Abigail Spanberger as governor by a 15-point margin, the potential for Democrats to unite and support the new map remains significant, despite early voting concerns and polling indicating opposition to the proposal.
Senate Republicans Advocate a Strategy to Reopen DHS
Reporting by Sahil Kapur, Julie Tsilkin, Garrett Haak, Ryan Nobles, Brennan Leach
Senate Republicans believe they have identified a practical approach to reopen the Department of Homeland Security and alleviate lengthy airport lines.
This proposed framework secures funding for all DHS operations, with the exception of immigration and deportation efforts managed by ICE. Senate Majority Leader R.S.D emphasized that Democrats have been presented with a legislative proposal that aligns with their objectives to reopen DHS, anticipating a chance to vote on it soon.
In response, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asserted that Democrats would counter with proposals addressing reforms within ICE. Schumer reiterated the necessity to address violence, stating, “This is not reforming ICE.”
Once DHS is functional again, Republicans plan to use the filibuster-proof reconciliation process to allocate remaining funds to ICE while advancing selective elements of the SAVE America Act, a top legislative priority for President Trump. The President expressed his intention to support the Republican Party but voiced concerns over the specifics of the emerging deal.
A source familiar with the negotiations noted that budget limitations could constrain the components of the SAVE America Act eligible for reconciliation, given that Democratic opposition to the bill remains firm. Possible provisions may include financial incentives for states to enforce voter ID laws or funds allocated for election security measures, suggesting the complex and strategic approaches at play.
That’s a wrap from the political desk for now. This newsletter has been edited by Adam Wollner.
