Survey Reveals Declining Approval for President Bola Tinubu
Recent data indicates that President Bola Tinubu’s approval rating has plummeted to 30.2 percent, with nearly half of Nigerians expressing dissatisfaction with his administration. This decline is largely attributed to the ongoing economic struggles faced by households, which have overshadowed any signs of macroeconomic recovery.
Insights from the National Survey
The survey, executed by Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA) to coincide with Tinubu’s third year in office, found that 47.5% of respondents disapproved of his performance. In addition, 18% of the participants remained neutral, while 4.4% opted not to respond. Compared to last year’s mid-year survey, these figures represent a notable decline, with approval ratings now seven points lower and disapproval rates four points higher.
Personal Finance Shapes National Sentiment
The report highlights that Nigerians’ views on their financial situations over the past three years are the strongest predictors of their assessment of the government, outweighing all other factors measured. EBDA Managing Director Sharon Orisakwe emphasized the importance of this connection, stating that improvements in household experience are necessary for any change in national sentiment, regardless of aggregate economic indicators.
Regional Variations in Public Opinion
There are significant regional disparities in approval ratings across the country. The North East recorded the highest support at 39.2%, followed closely by the South West and North West at 37%. In stark contrast, the South East and South South regions reported the lowest approval ratings, at 16.5% and 13.5%, respectively. Disapproval rates in these areas were alarmingly high at 62.9% and 59.8%.
Age-Related Dissatisfaction
When analyzing the data by age, respondents aged 56 and older in the Southwest were the only demographic group registering net positive support. Conversely, younger, working-age Nigerians—who are acutely aware of rising living costs—displayed significantly higher dissatisfaction rates. For the first time, the EBDA asked participants if their economic conditions had improved since Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, revealing deep-seated economic hardship across the nation.
Understanding Economic Hardship
The survey found that 62% of respondents felt their lives had worsened over the last three years, with only 23.3% reporting improvements. The Southeast saw particularly alarming statistics, with 78.5% stating their economic situations had deteriorated, followed by the South South at 75.5%. Nationally, 42.4% described their lives as “much worse,” while a mere fraction claimed they were “much better.”
Gap Between Macroeconomic Indicators and Household Realities
This disconnect between improving macroeconomic conditions and public sentiment is underscored by varying factors. While Nigeria’s headline inflation has decreased from a 2024 peak of 34.8% to 15.7% by April 2026 and economic growth has climbed above 4%, many Nigerians continue to report dire living conditions. Although inflation has slowed, prices remain significantly elevated compared to three years ago, with food costs witnessing an increase of more than 90% since May 2023. A bag of rice has surged from approximately N35,000 to around N80,000 during this time frame.
Global Context of Declining Approval Ratings
EBDA points out that Tinubu’s declining approval ratings are not isolated but part of a broader global trend. Recent approval ratings reflect similar declines for leaders in different countries, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval at 36%, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s at 23%, and French President Emmanuel Macron’s at 18%. One notable exception is Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama, who enjoys a 67% approval rating, bolstered by low inflation and a strengthened currency that has improved household purchasing power.
