Nigeria Reduces Dependence on Imported Gasoline with Increased Refinery Output
The Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has reported a notable decline in the country’s reliance on imported gasoline, attributed to a significant rise in domestic refinery production that operated at nearly full capacity in April.
This information was highlighted in the NMDPRA’s recent fact sheet, which revealed that local refineries achieved an impressive utilization rate of 99.12% during the month. Notably, the Dangote refinery operated at 100% capacity for most of April.
This improvement follows a substantial increase in crude oil supplied to Nigerian refineries, which has enhanced domestic gasoline availability and diminished the necessity for substantial imports that have historically dominated the nation’s fuel landscape.
Crude Oil Supply Discrepancies Persist
According to the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), domestic refineries received only 28.5 million barrels of crude oil during the first quarter of 2026, even as producers supplied a total of 68.7 million barrels.
The NUPRC indicated that 61.9 million barrels were allocated to domestic refineries from January through March; however, a significant gap remains between allocated and delivered crude oil, posing challenges to local refiners.
In stark contrast, NMDPRA’s April data indicates that domestic refineries saw their intake of locally produced crude oil rise to 18.37 million barrels, surpassing the 9.53 million barrels of imported crude. This brought the total crude oil intake for the month to 27.9 million barrels.
Gasoline Production on the Rise
The oil regulator further reported that gasoline production averaged 53.6 million liters daily in April, surpassing Nigeria’s official consumption benchmark of 50 million liters per day. Actual average daily consumption reached 51.1 million liters, with domestic supply accounting for 40.7 million liters and exports totaling 17.1 million liters per day.
This data reflects a growing domestic refining capability, especially given that both the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries remain offline, alongside the contributions from the expanding Dangote refinery and modular refineries.
A closer look at the fact sheet reveals that the average daily supply of gasoline in April was 44.4 million liters. Out of this, domestic refineries supplied 40.7 million liters, while imports plummeted to just 3.7 million liters daily, a sharp decline from the 40.1 million liters seen in March.
Domestic Supply Shifts Post-Subsidy Era
Industry analysts view these developments as strong indicators of the evolving dynamics in Nigeria’s downstream market. They believe the country is adapting well to the post-subsidy landscape, with increased domestic refining expected to stabilize supply and alleviate exchange rate pressures.
NMDPRA also highlighted that in addition to Dangote’s robust output, three modular refineries—Waltersmith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel—are contributing significantly to local supply, particularly in diesel production. Collectively, these facilities produced an average of 0.559 million liters of automotive gas oil (AGO) per day in April, with WalterSmith exhibiting the highest occupancy rate at 56.14%.
Improved Fuel Efficiency Amid Price Pressures
The regulator noted an improvement in Nigeria’s fuel self-sufficiency, with the country maintaining 18 days of gasoline self-sufficiency in April. Diesel stocks stood at 39 days, aviation fuel at 70 days, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at 13 days.
Price Trends and Future Prospects
NMDPRA reported that average pump prices ranged from N1,271.50 per liter in Lagos to N1,371.50 per liter in Maiduguri, coinciding with Brent crude oil prices averaging $120.55 per barrel over the same period. Despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria has historically depended on gasoline imports, largely due to underperforming state-owned refineries.
Recently, NNPC Limited announced memoranda of understanding with two Chinese firms aimed at revitalizing the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries. Analysts suggest that increased output from domestic facilities is poised to mitigate pressure on foreign currency demand, enhance supply security, and gradually shift downstream pricing trends.
Nevertheless, experts caution that sustained improvement hinges on refinery stability, availability of crude oil, transparent pricing mechanisms, and the capability of domestic producers to consistently meet the nation’s demand.
