Overview of President Trump’s Performance in the May Primary Election: Insights from the Politics Desk

Welcome to the Politics Desk, your daily source for the latest insights and analysis from the NBC News political team, covering the White House, Capitol Hill, and election campaigns.

In today’s issue, Ken Paxton and James Talarico examine President Donald Trump’s recent retaliatory campaign, focusing on the Texas general election. Meanwhile, Andrea Mitchell analyzes subtle shifts in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

— Adam Wollner

Trump’s Challenge in May Primaries

President Donald Trump endorsed ten challengers to Republican incumbents in this month’s primaries, aiming to consolidate his influence within the party amidst declining support from a broad voter base.

The near-final tally reported by Bridget Bowman indicates that Trump effectively eliminated all but two Republicans running against him, though the outcome of those races remains too close to call.

Latest results from Texas show Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating long-serving Senator John Cornyn in the primary runoff by a margin of 64% to 36%. Trump backed Paxton just a week before the primary, despite Cornyn narrowly securing the lead in the initial round held in March.

“Even if we, lifelong friends of John Cornyn, had hoped for the opposite outcome, we’ve moved from a scenario where Paxton was expected to win to one where he appears overwhelmingly favored,” stated Cornyn’s longtime friend and donor George See.

“It’s evident that the president’s sway is influencing the base more profoundly than we’ve witnessed in recent history,” Shi remarked. Sahil Kapur notes that while Cornyn emphasized loyalty to Trump in his campaign, his Senate voting record aligned closely with the president’s policies, which ultimately wasn’t enough to secure his position. Cornyn’s tenure included a history of institutional governance and apprehensions regarding some of Trump’s controversial actions.

Cornyn’s loss followed the defeats of two other incumbent Republicans backed by Trump, Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Representative Thomas Massey of Kentucky. Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump during the impeachment trial in 2021 and Massey’s consistent opposition to the president on various issues likely contributed to their electoral outcomes.

Additionally, five of the seven Indiana senators who opposed Trump’s redistricting proposal were ousted in the Republican primary; only State Senator Greg Good advanced, while a tight race between State Senator Spencer Deery and Paula Copenhaver will undergo a recount, with just three votes separating them.

The overarching message from Bridget is clear: this remains Trump’s party, and his influence can decisively alter political fortunes.

Looking ahead to November, Paxton is set to face Democratic State Representative James Talarico in the Texas general election, which may prove pivotal for the Senate majority race. Analysts from both parties believe that Paxton’s numerous controversies could swing this traditionally Republican seat.

In a bid to frame Talarico as a radical liberal, Paxton dubbed him “Tofu Talarico” and criticized his stances on various issues during his victory speech last night. Talarico responded in an interview, admitting that some of his previous remarks on sensitive cultural topics were inappropriate and emphasized that Paxton is manipulating these comments to distract from his own corrupt history.

Incumbent Losses Highlight Party Divides

Insights from Scott Brand

Alongside Cornyn’s defeat, two other Democratic incumbents lost in Texas’s primary elections. Veteran Representative Al Green succumbed to Representative Christian Menefee in a race between sitting members, while former Representative Colin Allred triumphed over first-term Representative Julie Johnson.

This year has already seen six incumbents defeated, surpassing the total number lost in the 2024 election cycle, indicating a troubling trend for established lawmakers.

The Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine

Insights from Andrea Mitchell

As the U.S. navigates complex dynamics toward a potential exit strategy in its conflict involving Iran, a critical shift is occurring in Eastern Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s innovative approach is significantly affecting the ongoing war with Russia, employing cutting-edge drone interception technologies.

Ukraine is ramping up production of these drones, now creating thousands daily in European factories, disrupting operations within Russia, including in Moscow. The technology is also assisting Gulf countries in fortifying their defenses against Iranian incursions. Following Zelensky’s diplomatic missions to the Gulf, Ukraine recently announced military sales agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

This development underscores the idea that necessity fuels innovation. The Trump administration’s previous calls for European nations to spearhead military assistance to Ukraine have become increasingly pertinent as the conflict with Iran strains American and Israeli resources.

The reclaiming of territory by Ukraine from Russia in April was a notable military milestone, with reports suggesting Russia is depleting its forces at an alarming rate of 25,000 to 30,000 troops monthly, a reality masked by government propaganda. The growing casualty figures are becoming harder to obscure from public consciousness.

Just months prior, Russia dominated the battlefield. Trump has since urged Ukraine to accept a peace plan favoring Putin’s agenda after meetings in Alaska, a situation exacerbated by the escalating conflicts in Iran which also draw attention and military capabilities away from Ukraine.

In a show of disapproval towards NATO, Trump has suggested troop withdrawals from Germany, further igniting concerns among European leaders about the U.S.’s commitment to collective security against potential Russian aggression. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. support now compels European nations to consider appointing their own emissaries to engage in negotiations with Putin.

Simultaneously, the internal strife within Ukraine continues unabated, showing no signs of resolution.

For subscribers, Senior Legal Correspondent Laura Jarrett will be addressing reader questions regarding the Supreme Court and other legal matters in a live Q&A on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.

This concludes our current update from the political desk. Today’s newsletter was edited by Adam Wollner.