Tuesday’s primary runoff elections in Texas will provide another litmus test for President Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican Party. This event marks a continuation of Trump’s efforts to penalize incumbent Republicans whom he considers insufficiently loyal.
In a significant move, Trump is endorsing state Attorney General Ken Paxton in his Senate Republican primary runoff against veteran Senator John Cornyn. This endorsement has raised alarms among party members who fear that Paxton’s controversial history could jeopardize his chances in the general election. The victor of this Republican runoff is set to face state Representative James Talarico, who secured the Democratic Senate nomination in March.
On the same day, Texas will also see several House primary runoffs, particularly in battleground districts where anonymous Republican-affiliated groups have invested heavily to elevate certain controversial Democrats. There is a possibility that two Democratic incumbents could be ousted in these House primaries, which may ultimately shift several Republican-held seats as they head into Congress next year.
Key Senate Contests
Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Paxton came just a week before the Republican Senate runoffs, striking a significant blow to Cornyn, who had also been campaigning on Trump’s behalf. In response to Trump’s backing, both Paxton’s campaign and the super PAC Lone Star Liberty quickly initiated advertising to highlight the endorsement.
The upcoming battle for the Republican nomination follows a closely contested primary on March 3, where Cornyn secured a narrow lead over Paxton with 42% to 41% of the votes, failing to achieve a majority.
Trump’s endorsement comes as a surprise, particularly given the numerous pleas from Republican leaders, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who urged Trump to support Cornyn for a fifth term. Concerns center on Paxton’s controversial reputation, having been impeached by the Republican-led House in 2023 for bribery and corruption allegations, although he was later acquitted by the state Senate.
Despite the controversies, President Trump labeled Paxton a “true MAGA warrior” and praised his push to abolish the Senate filibuster to enact Trump’s SAVE America Act, aimed at overhauling voting laws, including requiring proof of citizenship and photo identification for voters. Trump criticized Cornyn for lacking support during challenging times, noting Cornyn’s reluctance to endorse him in the 2016 primary.
A Divisive Primary Race
The Democratic primary runoff in Texas’ 35th Congressional District has garnered national attention, partly due to an obscure group allegedly linked to the Republican Party, which has been accused of anti-Semitic tendencies while bolstering the Democratic candidate.
Most local Democratic officials are rallying behind Johnny Garcia, an employee of the Bexar County Sheriff’s Office. However, Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who finished closely behind Garcia in the first round, is also in the race, despite having minimal financial backing.
Galindo has faced severe backlash for her inflammatory remarks, including an Instagram post in which she proposed converting ICE detention centers into “prisons for American Zionists.” This drew sharp criticism from House Democratic leaders.
Concurrently, the Lead Left PAC, a super PAC without disclosed funding sources, has invested around $1 million to support Galindo. Speculation surrounds the group’s ties to Republican fundraising efforts, suggesting strategic backing aimed at making the district less competitive in the general election.
Incumbents at Risk
At least one Democratic incumbent is guaranteed to be ousted as U.S. Representatives Christian Menefee and Al Green face off in a race shaped by recent Republican redistricting efforts. The competition highlights the generational divide within the Democratic Party, with 37-year-old Menefee challenging 78-year-old Green, who has served longer in Congress.
Menefee argues for his effectiveness as a lawmaker, backed by over $2 million in outside spending from a super PAC closely tied to the cryptocurrency sector. In contrast, Green is attempting to rally support by emphasizing her lengthy service and vocal criticism of Trump.
Next Steps for Congress
Several runoff elections in safe Republican districts are likely to shape next year’s Congressional landscape. In the Houston suburbs, a runoff will see candidates supported by both Trump and Governor Greg Abbott compete against one another. Alex Mealer, an Air Force veteran and Trump ally, edged out state Representative Briscoe Cain in the first round of voting.
In the 38th Congressional District, Trump-backed John Bonk faces conservative activist Shelly Dezeballos for the Republican nomination, following a close first round where Bonk fell short of a majority. Both candidates have their share of endorsements, creating a fiercely competitive environment.
Attorney General Race Heating Up
While Trump has not publicly endorsed a candidate in the Republican runoff for attorney general, his presence looms large over the competition between state Senator Mays Middleton and Representative Chip Roy.
Middleton, an affluent oil magnate and former chairman of the state House Freedom Caucus, is self-funding his campaign while framing himself as a “MAGA Mayes.” He has criticized Roy for previous divergences from Trump’s position. Conversely, Roy, a member of the House Freedom Caucus and former chief of staff to Senator Ted Cruz, touts his strong libertarian stance and Trump-supporting credentials.
As the election unfolds, Democrats Joe Jaworski and Nathan Johnson are also entering a runoff, yet a Democrat has not secured a statewide victory in Texas since 1994.
