Latest Political Insights from the NBC News Team
This is a daily briefing that provides essential reporting and analysis from the NBC News political team, focusing on developments from the White House, Capitol Hill, and ongoing election campaigns.
Steve Kornacki highlights critical elements in Texas that may determine whether Senator John Cornyn secures victory in tonight’s primary. In addition, there are updates on Republican redistricting challenges in South Carolina and Alabama.
Key Texas Counties in Focus Tonight
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
Senator John Cornyn’s success in today’s Texas Republican primary runoff would mark a significant upset. Existing polling data suggests he is backed by state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has solidified his position further following President Donald Trump’s endorsement last week.
Cornyn’s fortunes hinge on replicating his performance from the qualifying round in March, where he narrowly defeated Paxton by securing 42% of the votes to Paxton’s 41%, despite trailing in many polls. Meanwhile, Congressman Wesley Hunt, representing a Houston-area district, finished third with 17% of the votes.
A pivotal aspect of Cornyn’s success is his strong showing in Texas’s major population centers. In the qualifying round, the top ten vote-getting counties comprised approximately 45% of the total votes cast statewide, and Cornyn triumphed in seven of these counties.
In these counties, Cornyn gained a lead of 34,883 votes over Paxton. However, across the remaining 244 counties, he lost to Paxton by a margin of 3,065 votes. His best performances were recorded in the Austin metro area, particularly in Dallas, Travis, and Williamson counties, known for their higher concentrations of wealth and educated residents. Additional strongholds include Tarrant County (Fort Worth) and Bexar County (San Antonio), all vital for Cornyn’s recovery in this runoff.
Conversely, the only significant population center where Paxton exceeded expectations was Montgomery County, renowned for its conservative leanings. This area was a standout for Trump, who garnered more votes there than in any other county nationwide during the 2024 presidential election. Paxton is expected to perform well again tonight; however, it remains to be seen if his winning margin will be sufficient to overcome Cornyn’s leads in other regions.
Challenges in South Carolina’s Redistricting Efforts
Reporting by Jane C. Timm and Matt Dixon
In South Carolina, the Republican-led Senate’s recent decision to abandon plans for a new congressional map has effectively stalled redistricting efforts in the state. This unexpected turn has surprised observers, including President Trump, who had urged legislators to approve the reconfigured map that aimed to eliminate the sole majority-black district.
Despite the South Carolina House of Representatives approving the new map last week and advocating for an additional primary election in affected districts, Republican objections emerged as early voting began for the originally scheduled June 9 primary. Some senators expressed concerns regarding the feasibility of implementing new district boundaries at such a late stage.
Republican state Senator Richard Cash explained his change of heart, stating, “Neither my conscience nor my common sense can stop an election that is already underway.” This sentiment reflects a broader apprehension among Republicans regarding the timing of the proposed changes.
White House advisers, who have been diligently working for over a year to reinforce the party’s slender majority in the House, were left taken aback by the Senate’s rejection of the proposal, deeming it a setback. They anticipated a tumultuous process but were unprepared for the outcome of this particular vote.
As all state senators face re-election in 2028, one Republican strategist warned that the forthcoming years could be tumultuous for the MAGA grassroots, who may grow increasingly skeptical of established Republican senators.
