Civic Tech Group Raises Alarm Over Nigeria’s 2026 Budget
BudgeIT, a civic technology organization, has voiced serious concerns regarding the Nigerian government’s budget for 2026, branding it as “ambitious but unrealistic.” The group highlights that Nigeria is set to face a staggering budget deficit of 31.5 trillion naira, which constitutes 6.4% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The organization noted in a statement on Monday that revenue for the year is anticipated to reach 36.9 trillion naira, while total expenditure is projected at 68.3 trillion naira. This spending exceeds the Fiscal Responsibility Act’s stipulated limit of a 3% budget deficit.
The report emphasizes that the government realistically can fund only 53.9% of its budget through actual revenue, leaving 46.1% reliant on borrowing and loans to bridge the gap.
BudgeIT further states that, despite warnings from various observers, it seems increasingly evident that structural fiscal imbalances are entrenched within Nigeria’s financial framework.
Nigeria’s Spending Plan Driven by Revenue and Borrowing
This year, Nigeria aims to finance its largest-ever budget through a mixture of revenue generation and increased borrowing. Initially, President Bola Tinubu proposed a budget of 58.5 trillion naira to parliament, which was later adjusted upwards to 68.3 trillion naira following an additional request for 9.1 trillion naira.
The president articulated that these adjustments are intended to address outstanding capital projects from previous budgets and to prevent unresolved debts from negatively affecting the fiscal plan for 2026. Historically, the country has struggled to meet revenue projections, often falling over 30% short of targets, raising flags about the sustainability and reliability of its fiscal framework.
“The key issue is implementation, and reforms are central to revenue mobilization and improving implementation capacity,” argues Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, underscoring the urgency for systemic reforms.
Concerns Over Revenue Projections and Debt Burden
BudgeIT, which promotes financial transparency and accountability in Nigeria, asserts that the 36.9 trillion naira revenue projection is overly optimistic, given the country’s significant reliance on oil revenues and the uncertain impacts of proposed tax reforms. The organization also pointed out that while an increase in capital expenditure by 47.1% to 32.3 trillion naira signals a commitment to infrastructure and long-term growth, the plan is severely hampered by the existing debt burden.
Debt servicing is anticipated to consume around 15.8 trillion naira of the budget, representing approximately 45% of projected revenue and 23% of the total expenditure. BudgeIT warns that escalating debt repayments could constrict fiscal space, leaving a considerable portion of government revenue pre-committed and discouraging investment in critical sectors.
From 2021 to 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt surged from 33.1 trillion naira to 159.3 trillion naira, marking a staggering increase of 380.9%. This ongoing debt crisis emphasizes the urgent need for a restructured fiscal approach to stabilize the economy.
Overall Fiscal Environment Highlights Structural Challenges
BudgeIT concludes that the 2026 budget reflects an administration attempting to reconcile growth ambitions with fiscal realities, yet it remains constrained by deep-rooted structural inefficiencies such as sluggish growth, low productivity, currency depreciation, limited export diversification, and logistical challenges. The organization stresses that the core issue facing Nigeria extends beyond mere revenue generation, encompassing revenue pragmatism, disciplined spending, effective debt management, and institutional credibility.
