BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — As we navigate through this decade, Latin America is witnessing a notable shift to the left as progressive leaders harness public frustration stemming from deep-seated inequality. This trend has been exacerbated by the pandemic, leading to the rise of leftist governments in several major economies, including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru.
However, a counter-movement is emerging. While overall murder rates in Latin America have decreased compared to a decade ago, certain countries are experiencing alarming increases in homicide rates, alongside a rise in other crimes, notably extortion. This situation has created fertile ground for conservative populists, who are capitalizing on voter concerns by pledging aggressive approaches to crime and immigration.
Strategies that criminalize immigrants and advocate for stringent security measures, notably those exemplified by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, have gained traction amidst the conservative politics reminiscent of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s era. Despite worries over potential human rights violations and threats to democracy, these strategies continue to resonate with disillusioned voters.
Voter Preferences Shift Toward Tough-on-Crime Policies
Adam Isakson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office’s Latin American Bureau, explains that while populist politics are prevalent across the political spectrum, only right-wing platforms tend to offer immediate security solutions that reassure voters “within six months,” albeit at the cost of democracy and human rights. In contrast, proposals from the left, such as community violence prevention and judicial reforms, require a longer timeline to demonstrate effectiveness.
“People’s patience is running thin,” Isakson notes. The appeal of leaders like Bukele lies in their promise of rapid results. In Colombia, for instance, pro-Trump businessman Abelardo de la Espriella has drawn inspiration from Bukele’s tactics, leading in polling ahead of the upcoming runoff election.
The Rising Threat of Organized Crime
Insights from Insight Crime indicate that while the average murder rate in Latin America and the Caribbean declined by over 5% last year, certain regions are witnessing troubling spikes. Peru and Colombia are seeing increases in drug-related homicides, echoing the rise of organized crime as well. Ecuador, perceived as a key conduit for drug smuggling to Europe, is also experiencing significant surges in violence.
In 2022, Peru reported 2,400 murders, while Colombia hit a staggering 14,780, the highest figures since at least 2020. In Ecuador, murders escalated by an astonishing 31% compared to the previous year, totaling 9,216. Gangs have intensified their hold, particularly in Ecuador, as they engage in brutal conflicts for control of drug trafficking routes, resulting in a tragic loss of life among inmates in prisons as well.
Populist Leaders Gain Traction Amidst Rising Crime
The social climate across the region has drastically shifted since Chilean voters opted for former President Gabriel Boric over hardliner José Antonio Kast four years ago. However, the spike in crime and media narratives linking Venezuelan migrants to rising violence have reignited interest in Kast’s approaches. Reports of criminal gangs infiltrating human trafficking networks in a post-pandemic Chile add fuel to this fire.
Chile’s homicide rate climbed by 30% from 2021 to 2022, reaching 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, and although it has slightly stabilized, concerns surrounding other violent crimes persist. Young voters are increasingly drawn to leaders who promise safety, inspired in part by Bukele’s strategies, which include implementing stricter border controls and harsher penalties for crime.
Campaign Promises vs. Political Reality
Nonetheless, the ambitious strategies of these newly elected populists confront the complexities of governing financially strained democracies like Ecuador and Chile. Ecuadorian President Daniel Novoa’s campaign pledges included imprisoning gang leaders on floating platforms, a proposal rapidly discarded upon taking office. The nation’s financial struggles complicate efforts to implement grand security visions.
Polls suggest skepticism among the public regarding the effectiveness of hardline approaches. Despite promises of mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, the Chilean government has only facilitated a limited number of deportation flights, drawing criticism for labeling ambitious promises as mere “metaphors.” In a recent address, Cast reiterated the need for patience and gradual progress in implementing security measures.
Experts indicate a growing tolerance for stringent tactics historically linked to right-wing regimes, coinciding with decreased trust in governance and heightened worries about personal safety. This environment presents formidable challenges for the Latin American left, which struggles to deliver on reform while coping with economic downturns and various corruption scandals.
