Ruling Party Prepares for Potential Challenges in 2027 Elections
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is increasingly aware that its strategy of fielding consensus candidates may falter in key states. Internal discord threatens to derail carefully laid political plans in advance of the 2027 general elections.
Central to the discord is the 2026 Electoral Act, which significantly restricts choices for political parties. By abolishing indirect primaries, the law mandates candidate selection through direct primaries—where all registered members vote—or through consensus, which necessitates unanimous agreement among candidates.
While consensus selection might appear straightforward in theory, it has proven to be contentious in practice. The Electoral Act clearly states that under Article 84(9), candidates cannot be compelled to withdraw their aspirations unless they provide written consent. If even a single candidate declines, parties are legally required to conduct direct primaries. Although this provision aims to enhance democracy, it is now clashing with the APC’s realities, characterized by competing power blocs and entrenched interests that show little willingness to compromise.
Amid escalating tensions and public dissatisfaction, political analysts suggest that the APC is reevaluating its longstanding reliance on consensus arrangements for candidate selection. Once perceived as a unifying tool, this strategy may now represent a significant electoral risk.
Sources within the APC informed Business Day that party leaders are conscious that imposing a consensus candidate could provoke a wave of protest votes during the 2027 elections, particularly among younger voters and disillusioned supporters. This concern echoes the 2023 elections when dissatisfaction with candidate selection led many party members to oppose the APC, resulting in President Bola Tinubu’s defeat in his home state of Lagos.
Recently, APC Lagos State Chairman Cornelius Ogelabi indicated that the party does not endorse any specific candidate for upcoming elections, marking a noticeable shift from previous practices. He confirmed that all positions are open for competition and emphasized that no candidates would be forced upon the party members.
Ogelabi reassured observers that the selection process will follow the timetable set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and comply with relevant electoral laws. As the primary election period approaches, running from April 23 to May 30, 2026, initial signs suggest that parties are grappling with the challenges of maintaining control while ensuring cohesive candidate selection.
In some regions, such as Ogun State, the APC has successfully imposed a measure of order, with Solomon Adeola Olamilekan Yai emerging as the consensus candidate for senatorial representation. However, tensions in Lagos are indicative of deeper fractures within the party. There are strong indications that Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat may be positioned as a consensus candidate, yet he lacks widespread support, particularly from other contenders like Abdul Aziz Adedjiran, who is advocating for direct primaries.
As conversations around candidacy intensify, many hopefuls in Lagos remain optimistic about their chances, actively engaging with local officials. Disputes about the affirmations regarding Hamzat’s candidacy further highlight the uncertainty that looms over the Lagos gubernatorial election.
In Oyo State, a similar dynamic is emerging, with Sharafadeen Ali initially favored as a consensus candidate. However, shifting political landscapes, particularly after Power Minister Bayo Adelabu’s resignation and emerging reports of his potential candidacy, complicate the situation. As varying ambitions take center stage, reaching a smooth consensus appears increasingly unlikely.
In Nasarawa State, tensions have escalated into overt dissent. Governor Abdullahi Sule’s endorsement of Aliyu Wadada as the apparent consensus candidate provoked protests from supporters of former IGP candidate Muhammad Adamu. This unrest reflects broader concerns, as lawmakers are reportedly lobbying the president against perceived attempts by governors to impose candidates in their districts.
The consensus mechanism offers speed and control but could lead to increased defections and deepen factional rifts, potentially undermining the APC’s electoral strength. Direct primaries, though more cumbersome and costly, can engender greater legitimacy, which consensus selection often lacks.
As the party prepares for the upcoming primaries, the APC faces a critical challenge: can it navigate its internal conflicts without compromising its electoral viability? Observers argue that the choice between consensus and direct elections will not only influence candidate selection but also dictate party unity as it heads into the general elections.
Analyst Nonso Okoye warns that mishandling candidate selection could weaken the APC from within, providing strategic advantages to rival parties. Given the stakes, the APC appears motivated to avoid the mistakes of past elections as it approaches the pivotal 2027 elections.
