Risk Assessment Highlights Ahead of Osun Governorship Election
As the countdown to the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State intensifies, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has identified approximately 385 potential flashpoints and 200 challenging terrains across the region. This information was revealed by Oluwatoyin Babalola, the state’s Resident Electoral Commissioner, during a meeting convened by Adegoke Fayoade, the Deputy Inspector General of Police overseeing the South-West zone. The gathering included heads of various security agencies, religious leaders, electoral officers, and media representatives.
The meeting took place on a Friday at the Osun State Command of the Nigeria Police Force in Osogbo, where it also drew the attention of Police Commissioner Ibrahim Gotan. Babalola noted that INEC has been proactive in its preparations for the upcoming election. The organization has conducted a thorough risk assessment across all 30 local governments in the state and shared its findings with relevant security agencies.
“Currently classified in the Amber Zone for security risks, we have also initiated risk management training,” Babalola explained. “Our field officers are actively conducting on-site surveys to assess various locations within the 30 local authority areas.”
Babalola further clarified that during the risk assessment, 385 flashpoints were identified. In addition, the commission pinpointed difficult terrains to help guide security operations. “There are still parts of the state that remain inaccessible, which poses challenges to security agencies,” she added, mentioning that around 200 such areas have been outlined. INEC has also trained its personnel in conflict management and peace maintenance, with Babalola herself visiting 29 out of the 30 local government areas.
In the wake of recent kidnappings in the Ila and Ifedayo local government areas, Babalola communicated her confidence in the assurances received from security agencies regarding maintaining peace before and after the elections. Turning to logistical matters, she noted that INEC has successfully received around 75 percent of the materials required for the electoral process.
“Non-statutory supplies have been strategically deployed,” she continued. “The police and other security forces have consistently worked to ensure peaceful elections.” Babalola emphasized that even the most meticulously planned election can be rendered futile without a peaceful atmosphere, underscoring the importance of voter turnout on election day.
She has urged all security agencies to intensify their efforts, expressing optimism that additional measures could be undertaken to bolster public confidence in the safety and orderliness of the gubernatorial election. “We are dedicated to conducting a free, fair, credible, inclusive, and transparent election,” Babalola affirmed.
As Osun State prepares for the polls on August 15, voters will choose a governor, with incumbent Ademola Adeleke campaigning for re-election on a consensus platform. His primary competitors are Bola Oyebamiji from the All Progressives Congress and Dr. Naseem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress, who has garnered support from former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola.
