For many, soccer embodies a global spirit, yet this fascination often escapes the discourse in applied mathematics classrooms. Perhaps FIFA would have been more apt to expand its slogans to address the complexities introduced by the tournament’s new 48-team format, which has transformed how teams advance from the group stages to the knockout rounds.
Instead of relying solely on random draws, one could mathematically model the potential 495 scenarios that dictate matchups among the top eight third-place teams. Regardless, in the knockout stage, Mauricio Pochettino’s U.S. men’s national team is poised to face Bosnia and Herzegovina. This innovative format will not deter Pochettino from drawing on several motivational insights as he speculates on America’s chances for triumph.
U.S. chances of reaching the finals
Round of 32
Opponent: Bosnia and Herzegovina (July 1, 8 p.m. ET, Santa Clara)
In a World Cup brimming with illustrious veterans, the 40-year-old striker Edin Dzeko remains a key player, while 22-year-old winger Kerim Alaibegovic distinguished himself by scoring in the 3-1 triumph over Qatar, securing Bosnia’s first progression to the knockout stage. The United States will aim to avoid a penalty shootout; Bosnia and Herzegovina excelled during their qualifying playoffs, defeating both Wales and Italy on penalties. The U.S. is led by an electrifying Sergey Barbares, who, having made history, could play with less pressure. His strong individual talent combined with fluidity in possession amplifies America’s chances. Scenarios abound where the U.S. could dominate early, while Bosnia’s best bets may hinge on strong defensive play and capitalizing on set pieces.
Why not us? U.S. victory probability rating: 7/10
Round of 16
Predicted opponent: Belgium (July 6, 8 p.m. ET, Seattle)
Belgium’s golden generation appears to be waning. The team, which once brimming with potential, has recently displayed inconsistency. Despite a commanding 5-1 victory over a medium-ranked New Zealand, their lackluster performances against teams like Egypt and Iraq are worrying signs. The U.S. must proceed cautiously, recalling their heartbreaking 2-1 overtime loss to Belgium in the 2014 World Cup. With stars such as Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku still in play, and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois solidifying the back line, the Americans face a formidable opponent. A recent friendly, where Belgium edged the U.S. 5-2, although not fully representative of both teams’ strengths, served as an essential lesson for Pochettino. If the U.S. finds itself competing against a top-10 nation early, Belgium might be the opponent they would prefer, as a morale-boosting victory could be immensely beneficial.
Why not us? Rating: 6/10
Quarterfinals
Predicted opponent: Spain (July 10, 3 p.m. ET, Los Angeles)
Spain, the reigning European champions, are expected to carry significant weight in this World Cup. Currently, they lean heavily on young talent like 18-year-old Lamine Yamal for creative energy. Yet, rampant possession does not always correlate with decisive outcomes, as evidenced by their recent struggles, including a scoreless draw against Cape Verde and a narrow 1-0 win over Uruguay. With vibrant support and less pressure, the U.S. could thrive in this matchup. Spain, equipped better than during the 2022 tournament where they fell to Morocco in penalties, still poses a challenge. Should the Americans exhibit resolute defense and tactical discipline, a major upset is not beyond the realm of possibility, although they traditionally excel in matchups against evenly matched or weaker opponents.
Why not us? Rating: 3/10
Semi-final
Predicted opponent: France (July 14, 3 p.m. ET, Dallas)
Didier Deschamps’ squad impressed during the group stages, showcasing remarkable attacking prowess, albeit occasionally exposing defensive vulnerabilities. For instance, in a recent 4-1 victory over Norway, France conceded a goal shortly after halftime. The dynamic nature of the U.S. team, bolstered by talents like Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun, could challenge France’s defense should they gain momentum. If Pochettino’s team makes it this far, they will likely embody the kind of belief that transforms dreams into reality. Yet, encountering a team of France’s caliber, particularly if they have previously defeated strong rivals like Germany or the Netherlands, suggests a daunting task for the Americans.
Why not us? Rating: 2/10
Final
Predicted opponent: England (July 19, 3 p.m. ET, New York/New Jersey)
A potential final matchup against England captures both historical significance and the excitement of competition. This pivotal month serves as a reminder of the principles that have defined America over centuries: ambition, diligence, and resilience. Envision a World Cup finale in New York, primed to be more electrifying than any UFC showdown on the White House lawn. Moreover, should England falter in topping their group, an earlier encounter between the two nations could occur in the quarterfinals. With numerous players boasting experience in Premier League play, the Americans might leverage their familiarity with England to produce an upset, buoyed by burgeoning confidence and the advantages of playing on home soil.
If the U.S. reaches the finals, it will signal a remarkable achievement, potentially earning them the trophy that might one day sit in the Oval Office, joining other prestigious accolades.
Why not us? Rating: 10/10
